Sunday 16th September
Ran with the Mallow group. The plan was to do a 21 mile run
but I wanted to run a duration of the run at MP pace. It was probably a risk sandwiched
in between 2 half marathons but the reassurance of doing a MP run on tired legs
was important. Mission achieved anyway. Did 21 miles in 2.53.53 and while still
allowing for a couple of watering pitstops and a downhill 3 mile finish I was
very happy. Average Hr was 150. Miles 1 to miles 9 was reached in 1.20.22. The
splits for the remaining 12 miles were 7.44,7.41,7.42,8.00,8.06,7.50,7.42,7.53,7.41,7.33,7.40,7.51.
The last 12 miles were completed in 1.33.31 with mile 16 explained by a steep
pull. The average pace was 7.45 which translates into a 3.24.30 marathon time.
This of course would be a dream time for me. Over the week I put my Blarney
half marathon time into a number of running calculators including Macmillian,
Runners World, Hal Higdon, Jack Daniel’s VDOT (not the drink but the coach).
The most conservative estimates say I can do the marathon in 3.27, the most
optimistic was 3.22. Personally I treat these calculators with a fair degree of
caution. A good rule of thumb is to double your half marathon and add a minimum
of ten minutes and a maximum of 20 minutes allowing for experience and fitness.
That would give me 206 – 226 minutes for the marathon or a time of 3.26 to
3.36, so that isn't too bad.. Last year in running Dublin I
estimated based on previous half marathons and MP runs a finish time of 3.43 to
3.45 and I ended up with a time of 3.40.51. There fore what conclusions can I
draw?
1)
I
am in very good running shape. I have a half marathon coming up next weekend
and will be tee’d off if I don’t get close to 1.36 and possibly a 1.35. I have
a long long run the week after and hope to do 22/23 miles at 9 minute pace. The
Cork Cobh 15 mile race will be in effect a 20 miler with a 5 mile warm and 15
miles to be run on 7.35 to 7.45 pace. Then maybe a 18 miler the week after. Nothing much more I can do at that stage bar watch the diet.
2)
Allowing
for all things being equal (good weather, no injuries etc etc) when I stand on
the start line in Dublin i can be confident and hopeful of getting just under
the 3.30 time. That said I would be foolish to extend myself beyond the pacer
too early in the race. Either way there may not be a whole lot in it. A solid
start as distinct from a slow one or a fast one is vital. The last 10K will be the decider.
3)
The
very worst I can expect will be a 3.30 to 3.40 time
4)
Calculators
are a bit ropey and really have to be treated with caution. Races and long runs
are the best knowledge a runner can have. “Know thyself”
Mileage for the week 59.5. A new
weekly record. Mind you one of the guys in Mallow AC ran 107 miles this week.
He’s going for a 2.54 in Frankfurt. Unreal and admirable.
Looks like you are in great shape to get your 3:30. I am also hoping for 3:30 and was happy to get in a 1:35 1/2 mara in the Phoenix park yesterday. But comparing my prep to yours; you are getting in more miles and more and better quality long runs, so my money would be on you to be more likely to get 3:30 than me. As you seem to be aware I would caution going out at faster than 3:30 pace until the last 10k, and if you still feel you have something in the tank go for it then. Last year I was ahead of the 3:30 pacers at mile 17 but arrived in over 4hrs. Ouch. (It was a bit stupid of me to be ahead of them full stop)!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the tip Colm. Well done on your half marathon time in Phoenix park over the weekend. No doubt about it but you are doing well. A 1.35 is ideal prep for a 3.30 assualt and without being too picky it's where I like to be rather than 1.37.46. A lot of people recommend the Athlone 3/4 marathon as a good training race.
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